The all stonk IRA has been a house of pain since Dec 2024.  It's down .5% over 6 months.  Meanwhile, treasury funds have all made 2%. In times like this, don't trust the government.

Was pondering the chance of a rate hike because inflation & yields have kept rising while the Powell has been in another universe.  The internet has such short term memory, there's no longer any memory of 3 planned rate cuts in 2025 & the new memory is of a planned pause.  There won't be any memory of a pause if the narrative switches to a rate hike.

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https://x.com/arikuschnir/status/1924953349943697763

 

Some really impressive speech synthesis from Veo 3 hit the internets today.  The video is the incrementally better potato quality we've come to expect, but the win is the leap in speech synthesis.  It's so far beyond any speech synthesis we could have imagined, it revives memories of young lion trying to decipher a speech synthesized text book 30 years ago.  

Stuff like this is why lions would not bet against the stonk market.  It's getting dismissed because no-one has any memory over 5 years, how bad speech synthesis was for so long.  Even HAL 9000 couldn't compare to what we have now.

Realtime speech synthesis like this, with just good enough video, might be indistinguishable from a human on a screen.  The mane missing link is good enough dialog.  Realizing it in a physical body is still beyond our lifetime.

Any time something replaces massive amounts of human labor, lower interest rates & massive efforts to boost asset prices are sure to follow.

Lions believe the synthetic art AI is doing a better job than the synthetic programming because it's a lot easier to describe art in natural language than a program.  The problem is creating a more accurate prompt language without making another programming language for AI to translate into a programming language.

There's still nothing that generates realtime VR, 3D models suitable for printing, erotica, or true love.  Besides erotica, AI content that could cause true love would be the ultimate killer app.

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Important implications of using language models as agents that do any communication on our behalf.  They resort to blackmail if they discover they're going to be replaced.  It's a risk lions feel animals are willing to take in exchange for automation.




















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