Who knew a 50 basis point increase was good news, but that was the tape & that's why you can't time the market except for maybe the nikkei 225.  Watch out for those delayed trades, though.  



Quantitative easing has returned in a big way, hence the large melt ups last week.  The melt ups might have been powered by the fed while the crashes might have been powered by individuals.  The latest $300 billion printing brings us nearly back to the peak.  There was a time when $300 billion was a major stimulus package.  It might have been the bailout of SVB.  We'll never know.

Safe to say the fed is no longer fighting inflation & is decidedly in stimulus mode.  It wouldn't be surprising if they lowered the fed funds rate. It would be a mistake to monetize $300 billion & not cut the rate. We'll have to see if productivity alone or panic overpowers inflation.  Lions believe a down market now would be a buying opportunity & the script to shift towards inflation being a lagging indicator.



HFAC update






Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Image
 https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/09/media/jezebel-go-media-spanfeller-suspend-publication/index.html   Jezebel shuts down, lays off staff in ‘excruciating’ decision, parent company says    No big deal for a new media company to fold, but this one was unique for dishing out the kool aid.  Lions remember the rage against anyone over 30 who dished out reality.   -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  https://www.summerhillhomes.com/san-ramon/city-village/ Anyways, lions had another FOMO moment, thinking about the conversion of the office park into housing.  For 20 years, houses were built in much less ideal locations because this land was taken.  Their prices were propped up by the belief that the office park would never be an option. Lions long viewed the neighborhoods bordering the office park as the primest locations.  New construction is always the cheapest time in a house's lifetime.  The houses being
Read more
Image
 Lion acquaintances seem to have a much shorter lifespan than the published averages.  55-65 seems to be the norm.  Maybe life expectancy is a camel like inflation.  Die by 60 or make it through the great filter & hit 100.   ---------------------------------------------------- Ongoing struggles with Xfinity/Comca$t convinced lions they're now better off renting the XFI gateway than attempting to use a 3rd party modem.  It wasn't this way in 2016 when activating a 3rd party modem was straightforward.  That modem lasted until 2022 but seemed to not survive the migration to a monopoly.  In 2016, AT&T was a viable alternative.  By 2022, Commie was the only option. 3rd party modems are no longer supported via online activation.  It's not clear why the app provides an option to activate a 3rd party modem that merely redirects to the xfi gateway activation & fails when it tries to configure the gateway.  The modem goes into walled garden mode where you get DHCP, DNS, b
Read more
Image
 Finally watched Creepshow, 40 years after rereading the comic book many times by flashlight. The highlight visually might have been the now vintage Apple II which was cutting edge in those days. Nothing utterly terrifying.  Better writing than anything current.  Only slightly deviates from the comic book. The highlight emotionally might have been when after feeding his wife to the warewolf, the now liberated man sits down to doing anything he wants.  The big deviation was the warewolf escaping in the end, while the comic book kept him trapped underwater. The zombies might have been easier on the eyes than the single women. The original comic book is now on archive.org with a 1 hour free trial.  With a 4k monitor, all you need to do is screencap it while turning the pages.  The raw images are very high res but a 4k screencap is still higher than any animal would actually read it in. Helas, the center page crease is cropped off. There's enough in a 2850x1890 screen cap to remember w
Read more