Most animals envision inflation as a gaussian curve.  In reality, it's a camel just like wealth distribution.  Lots of stuff rises 20% & lots of stuff falls 20%.  The government's job is not to keep the stuff like housing from rising 20%.  It's to balance housing with stuff that's falling like spaceflight.  There continues to be a big enough deflationary hump for the inflationary hump to continue growing forever.

 

The memory of 20 years of negative interest rates is still fresh in millennial minds as they continue to pile into stonks.  They're not taking the bait.  Lions don't expect positive interest rates to last very long but continue to focus on the fed balance sheet.  It hit a new record in April, sold off sharply & it's not clear which way it's headed.  It's become a new index.  The fed seems to target a 3.5% growth rate in the dow meter & adjust its stonk positions in order to meet that target.  Sometimes it makes mistakes.

It could be a repeat of the 90's where rising interest rates accompanied rising stonks.  That was a 300% gain followed by a 30% drop.  As bad as the news depicted 2000, it was a tiny drop compared to the preceding rise.  Lions are pretty sure if 2008 repeated, the government would have the deflation it needed to print money like crazy.




Happy mane, happy life






https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hAS9YlS75zg


Carrizo plain







Comments

Popular posts from this blog