There are those who say were at about 1975 in the fed playbook & things are on track to fall over in the next 5 years.  A lot of things do match up.  They blamed the 2 inflation spikes of the 70's on the great society program, vietnam war, energy shortages.  They also blamed bad data.

Nowadays, there are those replacing great society program with quantitative easing, vietnam war with ukraine war, & energy shortages with housing shortages.  As for bad data, it would be the CPI under representing the 2 headed reality.

History never repeats, but it rhymes.  Lions suspect 1979 will repeat but it'll be  10% house inflation offset by -5% boat deflation.  The federal funds rate repeating 2 humps seems likely.  The 2nd hump won't get anywhere near 5% but we might dip to 2% before revisiting 3.5%.  Making money in the stonk market probably depends on focusing on the 2nd hump because there will be panics when & if the inflation reports start spiking again.

The biggest problem is the generational loss of knowledge in the 50 years since then.  Absolutely no-one in the media is bringing up the 70's playbook.  Consumers have adapted to justifying purchases with high inflation rather than scarcity, as they did in the 70's.

As bad as inflation is going to be, it's probably better for the lion  kingdom that we do imitate 1979.  The stonk positions are going to do better than inflation because inflation is 2 headed.  The cash positions will do better with higher interest rates.  The 2 positions rising together would yield more than just the stonk positions rising alone while the cash position goes to 0.


 How the world works.  Governments artificially lower their own interest rate as debt increases.  What do you think the federal funds rate is going to be when US debt is 300% of GDP?

 

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Kind of morbid that $1 in 1977 is $4 today & that's the official CPI number rather than the reality of half of everything being 10x higher while the other half is 2x lower. 

They love raising capital gains tax because it sounds populist & most of the money actually made is capital gains.  The only way to preserve any paycheck after a few years is capital gains.  1 week internet memory says they'll never get it to the promised 44% but the fact is they always raise it partway when they pledge any increase.  They raised it 4% in 2013 & they will again in 2025.


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Rewatched lion videos from 15 years ago & observed the view counts then vs today.  Lions used to get hundreds of views 15 years ago & now get maybe 5 if any.  Obviously, they're looking for monetized content, higher end production, & more vlogs nowadays. 

The biggest change besides monetization is they're not watching home music recording anymore.  15 years ago, there was no licensed music on the gootubes.  They just took everything copyrighted down so you had to find home recordings to hear anything.  They can now watch the licensed final fantasy soundtrack instead of unknown gootubers playing it.

A perusal of the lion sound files from 20 years ago shows how anything captured from radio & movies was once priceless. 




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