A 2nd rough long run in a row.  Last week's 23 miler keeled over at mile 20.  This week's 28 miler keeled over at exactly the same distance & ended with 2 hours walking 8 miles.  Lions are still cramping at every mile 20.  The plan was to take 24oz of water at mile 9 & mile 19.  GU electrolyte made no difference.  The high was 74F & lions definitely sweated out during those 20 miles.  This was the fastest lions ever went out.

 The last passage beyond 20 miles without cramping was 1/25.  That went 26 miles without cramping.  A combination of warmer weather & going out faster might be impacting the results.  A better strategy for going fast might be going just a hair beyond the last cramping point.  Otherwise, it's going to be necessary to slow down in order to finish 28 miles in a reasonable time.

 The motors got aligned before this run, there was no speaker, & the result was only 187mAh/mile. 

 



----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The S&P has been in a technical bear market since Nov 2024.  For someone not working & not continuously putting new money in, it's grown 26% in the last 3 years.  8.7% per year is not what lions would consider enough to provide passive income while simultaneously keeping up with inflation.  Modest 5% housing inflation & taxes would leave only 2.5% as passive income.  That's only $25k from a $1 mil index position.  It would be easier if everything moved up by the inflation target, but that's not how inflation targeting works.

 In lion opinion, the 401k is only a viable retirement system for the very top.  It takes really long time spans & really high volatility to get the oft quoted 10% stonk growth.  Only the very top has enough money to park enough of it for that long.  The rest need it within 10 years.

Well, what about putting it all in the stonk market from the 1st day of employment.  25 years ago, there was no such thing as a 100% stonk portfolio.  Interest rates were 8%, the stonk market just crashed, & the rule was to be manely in cash.  The aversion to stonks was so pervasive, an attempt to privatize social security was shot down.  Now the attitude is the exact opposite.

Hardly anyone is going to get it right from day 1.   The 1st 25 years are going to be sideways to negative for most animals.

The 99% without pensions, without dual incomes, without stabilized housing costs are not going to make it.  In 1 future, the voters are going to realize the 401k system doesn't work & demand the next big bailout.  A more likely future has full retirement only being attained by the lucky few.  Some might be in multi generation households with the kids paying for their retirement.  Most might work until they die. Retirement isn't going to be a universal thing like it has been.

 

 

 

 

 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Image
 What lions think is happening is index funds are earning interest on large treasury positions.  They're putting the interest into stonks to manetain a constant allocation.  It's not millennials pouring money in the stonk market expecting lower interest rates. High interest rates are pushing up stonks like the 90's.  Millennials are taking money out of the stonk market to buy houses & pay their mortgages.  Important reminder that lions would only barely get by & be fairly unhappy if they retired now, drained their savings to buy a house, & couldn't afford a lot of things they hoped to have.  Lions don't expect to have the coordination required to play it, when the time comes.  Maybe they could just play chords.  Would definitely have to learn how to tune it & regulate it. If lions didn't have to buy a house, things would be better. 40 years ago, bonds were called fixed income because the standard method was to use interest as a sou...
Read more
Image
 Don't kid yourself.  US is a 1 party system.  Unless something is drastically wrong with the 1 campaign, they always vote democrat.  Even as bad as H-Rod was, they still voted for her. Ordering renters to provide $25,000 subsidies to new home owners is basically ordering them to pay what was an entire down payment 20 years ago.  Surely if they could afford these entitlements for home owers, they would have bought houses themselves.  They formerly required the high school dropouts to pay $50,000 in student loan forgiveness to Harvard graduates. Calif* requires renters to provide a $150,000 subsidy to new home owners or about the total cost of a house 20 years ago.    Amerikans just want the Calif* way of life for all.  If you don't like how wealth is redistributed from poor to rich in Calif*, you're not going to like the rest of US. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------...
Read more
Image
  LESBIAN HOTTIE   Suspect the brunette can't control her cheek muscles because she has such a speech distortion & she  always has at least some of a smile when serious.  A virus can do that but normally only temporarily. The have 32 security cameras & their location isn't given anywhere.  They don't even reveal the nearest town or stores.  The location would reveal how good  or bad they really have it. Lions thought being 5 miles from the nearest town in a tropical paradise was bad, but vanwives look more remote & they've got extreme cold instead of daily thunderstorms. Their 15 acres with abandoned cabin was $37k in 2019.  They were paying $1200/month in rent in Toronto before then.  The canadian dollar in those days was worth about 2 greenbacks. They're making about $10k/month from the tube & probably another $10k from other deals.  They recently went viral & began making more videos. They're kind of a revival for ...
Read more