The comedy of the fed returns with the PPI coming in at over 15% annualized.  The PPI is manely ignored because it doesn't subtract wage deflation.  How quickly double digit inflation became normalized & 1 time events became ongoing inflation.

Came close to selling a small position on Wed, but the lion kingdom's exposure to the S&P remanes very small, especially in an IRA. Selling is only possible in an IRA, which is another reason against having all the cash in IRAs.  The other reason is the need to access the cash.

 The long bond expects higher interest rates in the future.   Lions expect the S&P to go lower in the future.  The fed never managed to suppress the yield curve, despite much quantitative easing.  The 30 year cracked 33% higher than the 1 year.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Forever positions come of age 

It came to pass that lions broke their forever position rule & finally sold off an S&P position on Thu, with the market at another record high.  It would bump the stonk + bond allocation down, closer to 50/50 & free up a dip buy.  Fortunately, lions don't have to be over 50% in stonk to have huge stonk exposure.

The idea of forever positions might be overrated if you can be somewhat still invested, absolutely certain things are going to head down & you're going to buy it all back at a lower point.

It is sometimes believed to be the long term concentration in cash which allowed lions to rapidly move up in the last 6 years.  If lions had forever positions in stonk or constantly bought stonk after 2008, the rise would have been slower & possibly less because a smaller amount of old principle would have rode the market up while the larger new principle would have rode it down.  The principle during the dips would have been less.

 Noted as lions got closer to their target asset allocation, the melt up took a lot longer & was a lot less than when every dip triggered mega buys. 

Sadly, schwab doesn't allow buying any vanguard funds.  Their money market, basically SGOV, has a higher commission.  They don't allow wire transfers to another brokerage.  Lions would have to roll over the entire account, but it was originally Scottrade which Schwab bought out.

Suspect there's a lot of optimism about Warsh being a dove.  Well, they thought Powell would be a dove before his rookie mistake.  

The current generation has never known a time of persistent, 1 time inflation events, requiring meaningfully higher interest rates or a positive yield curve.  It seems no matter how fast progress advances, animals are always going to push spending until inflation finally outpaces progress.

No gootuber stands behind the advice they gave a year ago.  They used to recommend 100% stonk & down vote anyone with cash, 5 years ago.  That changed to having an emergency fund in the last 3 years & now anyone 100% in stonk gets down voted.

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Continuing the adventures of finding childhood books & thereby resurrecting forgotten memories, Choose Your own adventure: your very own robot was found in the archive.

https://archive.org/details/yourveryownrobot00mont/

Recall believing the drawings represented exactly how a robot should be designed & every detail served a purpose.   

 

 


 




 Don't recall the POV being a girl.  Despite every effort, this generation still became manely secretaries.  Reviewing it from start to finish, young lion quite literally never read any of them from start to finish but did exactly as told by following the branches.



 

The grand master of forgotten kid books was The Fallen Spaceman, also in the archive.  This was the 1st time lions saw it in at least 40 years.

https://archive.org/details/fallenspacemanth0000leeh 

The visuals in that one were quite extraordinary, though the scanned versions are now mangled.  It seems to have left a significant impression on that entire generation. It would be a good one to convert to video.

 Another one involved traveling to a planet where everyone moved slowly.  That may not have been a choose your own adventure.  Kiwipedia doesn't show all the titles.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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