Lions were around to see fixed income give way to house flipping as a path to wealth after 2004.  Then they saw house flipping give way to rental properties after 2008.  Then they saw rental properties give way to cryptocurrency after 2016.  Then they saw crypto currency give way to 100% index fund portfolios after 2020.  Now, the pendulum is undeniably swinging back to fixed income.

In the current stonk market with a 50/50 allocation, lions would run out of money without working.  A 100% fixed income would be so dramatically improved, it would provide enough to stay in Calif* & leave a small amount left over.  Move to FL & have a lot left over.  A lot of gootubers are making the same discovery.

Previous gains from stonk came manely from buying dips rather than static positions.  The 50/50 allocation doesn't allow buying any more dips.  Most gootubers bought all at once in 2022, when 100% index funds hit the news.  They've only ever reported negative to sideways returns from their static positions & now are pivoting to fixed income at around the same time.

 On the other side, current fixed income still won't keep up with inflation.  There's a nonzero chance interest rates could go down.  The government could offset higher prices with falling wages.  Rent increased 3% last year, absolutely nothing compared to historic increases after 2013.  Interest rates are still 50/50.

The trend since exiting the gold standard has always been to subsidize higher prices with falling wages.  There's no precedent since 1976 for higher prices to outweigh falling wages.  It would be like the government abolishing all welfare programs.  Bond vigilantes are fighting an entitlement system that prioritizes wages over prices.

Lions wouldn't be 50/50 if there was absolutely no chance of stonks going up.  Even though the stonk side has stalled since May 2026, it did go up slightly faster than fixed income before then.  There's always a chance it could continue grinding slightly faster than fixed income.

Chasing 100% in 1 asset class is a case of greed.  Greed has never paid off.  It presumes you know better than the market.

The post 2020 thinking was 50/50 being conservative enough to buy a significant dip in the stonk market & sell it during the rebound back to 50/50.  Lions would consider going above 50% stonk during a dip of over 15%.  It's conceivable for rising interest rates to change that thinking to 50% stonk being the sell point & 30% stonk being the buy point.  That was the teaching 30 years ago.  Lions have actually gotten a hair above 50% fixed since the stonk market stalled.

Striving for growth or more than 0 upon death might be another case of trying to beat the Joneses. There's no dynasty to give it to & no-one cares if you're rich.  The rich gootubers all have pensions, paid off houses, 2nd incomes.

It might be good enough to not try to match the internet, plan to drain 50% by age 70, then switch to social security.  Average lions aren't going to 0 but they're not creating a Vanderbilt dynasty either.

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 Trump has pivoted from the judicial branch to trade embargoes to control the fed.  Lions suspect he has succeeded & will continue to succeed in preventing rate hikes but won't create any rate cuts this way.  The long term impact is going to be bad, as all governments are.  The deferred tightening of the last 2 years on behalf of Trump has a nonzero chance of going off in a short time span, after 2028.  They're going to have to act fast to jump ahead from behind.


 Long term average shows they haven't materially expanded the balance sheet since May or the last time lion stonks went up.

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Pondered how many hottie trophy wife wannabes chased polyamorous billionaires, got nothing, & now are still working as cat ladies when they could have already retired if they picked someone mediocre.

Jesus Heroine became the world champion cat lady.  IGN hottie appeared to move back to the bay area after her stint down south.  The stud muffin lawyer appeared to still be down south.  She used to complain the shit out of the bay area.  Lions gave her a high chance of divorce.  Welcome to the legions of single mother billionaire chasers, if true.

 28 was considered the minimum age of successful marriages, 30 years ago.  Now, with the war for attention, the 30 second soundbytes of dating, the status seeking combined with seer sucking summer liberalism, it might be over 28.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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