Running some spreadsheets, with 3% interest, no inflation, & no stonk market gains for 20 years, the retirement fund would drop by 25%.  The cash would drop by 1/2.  We all know over 20 years, interest rates are headed down & stonks are headed sideways or up.  3% & a negative stonk market seems plausible for at least the 1st 10 years.

 Applying very conservative 3.5% inflation as a renter, the retirement fund would drop by 50% & the cash would be gone in 20 years.

The stonk segment needs to average 4% growth for the portfolio to come out flat in 20 years.  There could be no transfers to the cash segment.

Rebalancing to keep the cash constant would drain the stonk segment by 1/5, assuming the stonk went up 4% every year.  The stonk now has to go up 5% every year to break even.  Definitely better to not rebalance, but that would leave a 100% stonk weighting in 20 years.

 10% annual stronk growth would yield the dream, eternally growing portfolio.  It didn't happen this year.  That would grow with rebalancing.

The internet predictions are rosy at best.  The futility of it makes a good case for quitting early.  Another 4 years would just be thrown away like the previous 26 years.

 In the midwest, things improve.  Housing costs could be reduced.  Since lions are on a path to less sun exposure, the weather won't be as important.  The midwest could be a backup in case the portfolio isn't doing so well after 10 years.  Interest could be 0 & the stonk market could go down.  There's only so much redundancy one can achieve.

We all have visions of going out on our own terms, checking out after turning down zillions of job offers, but lions suspect it's really a forced exit most of the time.  It looks like a hollowing out similar to outsourcing in the 2000's.  They're hiring more above $400k roles & less below $400k roles & more minimum wage data entry roles to train the models.  It's once again favoring graduates from the top tier schools, after years of DIY careers being the craze.  The stuff that was self teachable from online sources was the stuff language models could teach themselves.

 

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Nothing more was making it down the VPN for a few weeks, so started on the sum of all fears, a dog turd of a movie.  It was a failed attempt to revive the glory of the hunt for red october.  

 Jack Ryan's job finding the most relevant words in mountains of historical text & generating future text based on a context of the last million words written seems incredibly outdated in the last 3 years.  

 

 Watching the nuggets of early 2000's for average animals, the low definition CRT for TV, the big ass CRT monitors for the computer.  No HD or video on a PC for average animals.  Noted none of the paper shufflers in the office scene would have a job now, unless it was an entitled government job.  

 

 

 Unfortunately, all premise of a serious story go out the window when Ben Affleck shows up.  That was the least serious part of the world's least serious actor's career.  All hope would be lost without Morgan Freeman.

Sadly, most of it required subtitles to make any sense of it & ffmpeg showed no subtitle tracks.

There is a reprive of Jack Ryan's attempts to convey empathy with the antagonist.

Their lives all seem a bit cush, like hunt for red october.  They never worry about money, unemployment.

 

  

The greatest intrigue was the Israeli pilot getting shot down & the nuclear bomb getting swallowed by the sands of 30 years.  Then the movie was over in 5 minutes.

 Hard to imagine when that would ever happen in real life.  The search for the missing pilot would have made a better movie.  It would have to be a highly contested war zone.  They would have blown up the site, at minimum & let the enemy deal with the contamination.

 The story was based on the accidents during operation chrome dome.  3 B-52's crashed in the 1960's which left bits of many nuclear bombs on land & in the ocean.  No intact nuclear bombs were lost.  A component of 1 bomb was lost underwater.  They all broke up & spread contamination everywhere instead of exploding.